Back

Environmental Science & Technology

American Chemical Society (ACS)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Environmental Science & Technology's content profile, based on 64 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.12% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Genomic wastewater surveillance of seasonal and zoonotic influenza A viruses in California during the 2024-2025 flu season

Wang, A. L.-W.; Lamtyugina, A.; Jiang, M.; Yu, A. T.; Lu, C.; Wadford, D.; Burnor, E.; Pipes, L.; Kantor, R.; Nelson, K. L.

2026-06-12 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355323 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
17.2%
Show abstract

Wastewater genomic surveillance provides an opportunity to detect human and animal influenza A virus (IAV). We aimed to implement an IAV genomic surveillance framework agnostic to subtype, which enables recovery of IAV from multiple hosts and estimation of proportions across subtypes. We conducted IAV genomic surveillance in wastewater during the 2024-2025 flu season at multiple sites in California and compared these data with available human clinical IAV sequences and test positivity. We applied a custom whole-genome, multi-host IAV probe enrichment panel and adapted our custom expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to deconvolute IAV mixtures in wastewater and infer subtype relative abundances. Absolute IAV concentrations were quantified using RT-PCR-based assays. H5N1 wastewater and clinical sequences were further characterized by constructing a whole-genome maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree. Finally, we performed variant analysis to examine amino acid substitutions detected in wastewater. Our IAV probe enrichment method and EM algorithm successfully enriched all eight segments of three circulating IAV subtypes and accurately estimated subclade relative abundances for mixed IAV samples. Seasonal human H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 were detected throughout the study period from both wastewater and clinical sequencing data, with H1N1 subclades 6B.1A.5a.2a.1 and 6B.1A.5a.2a co-circulating, and H3N2 dominated by subclade 3C.2a1b.2a.2a.3a.1. Wastewater surveillance consistently detected H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b across three monitored wastewater sites, while clinical H5N1 detections, from anywhere in CA, were sporadic and rare. Whole-genome phylogenetic analysis revealed that wastewater H5N1 sequences clustered with reference sequences associated with dairy cow and avian infections, while all human clinical H5N1 sequences clustered exclusively with reference sequences associated with dairy cow infections. Amino acid substitutions were identified across viral segments, and no mutations associated with mammalian adaptation were observed from wastewater samples.

2
Multi-Pathogen Wastewater Surveillance enables Real-Time Targeted Public Health Interventions During the 2025 African Nations Championship Football Tournament

Nsawotebba, A.; Morunyanga, I.; Nakintu, V.; Kabazzi, J.; Magala, J.; Uragiwenimana, V.; Ssekyondwa, S.; Kasujja, R.; Onywera, H.; Hull, N.; Akejo, D. S.; Dambya, C.; Ikoba, S.; Baraka, V.; Tebeje, Y. K.; Barigye, E.; Cham, F.; Ssewanyana, I.; Nabaasa, H.; Muruta, A.; Olaro, C.; Atwine, D.; Nabadda, S.; Acheng, J. R.

2026-06-08 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354973 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
8.4%
Show abstract

Mass gatherings pose significant public health risks by facilitating the spread of infectious diseases. While wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been widely used to monitor pathogens in high-income settings, its use as a practical, multi-pathogen surveillance tool during mass gatherings in low- and middle-income countries remains limited. This study aimed to assess the operational feasibility, epidemiological significance, and public health utility of multi-pathogen WBS during the African Nations Championship (CHAN) football tournament in Uganda. Wastewater surveillance was conducted at Mandela National Stadium during eight match days in August 2025. Moore swabs were deployed at 38 manholes receiving wastewater from different toilet facilities across the stadium to capture representative wastewater samples. Samples were processed using Nanotrap(R) microbiome virus particles to concentrate pathogens, followed by nucleic acid extraction. Samples were analyzed for multiple enteric and respiratory pathogens, including Mpox, using quantitative PCR (qPCR). Descriptive analyses were performed to characterize pathogen detection patterns, positivity rates, and temporal distribution across surveillance sites. A total of 304 wastewater samples were collected and analyzed, of which 259 (85.2%) tested positive for at least one pathogen. Multiple pathogens were consistently detected across sampling days, with enteric pathogens predominating, particularly Shigella spp. (53.6%), Rotavirus A (35.9%) and Enterovirus (32.2%). The mpox virus was also detected in a notable proportion of samples (28.6%) across several sampling days. Respiratory pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2 (11.8%) and Influenza B (8.2%), were identified intermittently at lower frequencies. Pathogen diversity varied over time, with up to eight pathogens detected on a single day, and co-detection of multiple pathogens observed in the majority of positive samples. Cq value distributions further demonstrated variability in detected signal patterns across pathogens. Surveillance findings informed real-time public health interventions, including sanitation reinforcement, intensified hygiene promotion, environmental disinfection, and targeted risk communication, strengthened syndromic surveillance with on-site triage, and targeted environmental health assessments of food handling and wastewater infrastructure. These findings demonstrate the operational feasibility and public health utility of integrating multi-pathogen wastewater-based surveillance into mass-gathering preparedness and response frameworks in low-resource settings. By capturing diverse pathogen signals and informing targeted interventions during the CHAN football tournament, WBS can provide actionable population-level insights that can support outbreak preparedness and response. Scaling WBS within national preparedness systems could strengthen epidemic intelligence, enhance early warning capacity, and support data-driven public health decision-making during future mass gatherings and emerging infectious disease threats.

3
Consumer-Product Chemical Mixture and Systemic Inflammation: Survey-Weighted Analysis of Seven Urinary Biomarkers in NHANES 2005-2010

Jobe, N. I.

2026-06-10 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355076 medRxiv
Top 1%
2.1%
Show abstract

Background: Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in consumer products are ubiquitously detected in human biospecimens, yet most epidemiological studies examine single chemicals rather than real-world co-exposures. We evaluated associations between a mixture of seven urinary chemical biomarkers and systemic inflammation. Methods: Survey-weighted log-log regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, poverty-income ratio, and survey cycle were conducted with Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction (primary analysis, N=4,864). A sensitivity analysis additionally adjusted for body mass index and smoking status (N=4,494). Results: In the primary analysis, 5 of 7 chemicals showed significant associations after FDR correction: ethylparaben ({beta} = -0.056, FDR P < .001), propylparaben ({beta} = -0.026, FDR P = .007), bisphenol A ({beta} = +0.052, FDR P = .005), monoethyl phthalate ({beta} = +0.043, FDR P = .002), and monocyclohexyl phthalate ({beta} = +0.215, FDR P = .007). The WQS mixture index was significantly associated with CRP ({beta} = +0.056, 95% CI [0.031, 0.081], P < .001), with monocyclohexyl phthalate carrying the largest mixture weight (0.342). In the BMI- and smoking-adjusted sensitivity analysis, associations attenuated to null for all chemicals, though MCP preserved direction ({beta} = +0.129) and the WQS mixture direction was maintained ({beta} = +0.018). Two multiple imputation sensitivity analyses confirmed that monocyclohexyl phthalate was the only chemical to maintain a positive direction across all four analytical specifications (primary complete-case, BMI-adjusted complete-case, primary-aligned imputation, and BMI-adjusted imputation), reaching statistical significance in three of four specifications and providing convergent evidence of a robust MCP-inflammation association. Conclusions: The chemical mixture showed a significant collective association with systemic inflammation, consistent with a cumulative pro-inflammatory burden from co-exposure to multiple consumer product chemicals. These findings suggest that regulatory approaches should shift from single-chemical to mixture-based risk assessment frameworks for consumer product safety.

4
Long-term exposure to PM2.5 components and lipid profiles in WTC Health Program general responders

Krasnov, H.; knobel, p.; Hsiao-Hsien Hsu, L.; Teitelbaum, S.; Mclaughlin, M.; Just, A. C.; Kloog, I.; Yitshak Sade, M.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355272 medRxiv
Top 2%
1.6%
Show abstract

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was found to be associated with elevated blood lipids, but fewer studies have examined the associations with specific constituents of PM2.5. We studied the associations between exposure to annual PM2.5 and its 14 constituents, and repeated blood lipid measurements among general responders enrolled in the World Trade Center Health Program between 2003 and 2019 (n = 44,876). We used generalized additive mixed effect models to investigate the single-pollutant associations with repeated measures of blood total cholesterol (TC), high and low-density lipoprotein (HDL-C and LDL-C) levels. We then used linear generalized weighted quantile sum regression with a random intercept for participant ID to account for the clustering of repeated measures and evaluate the combined associations with the component mixture. A decile increase in the mixture of 14 PM2.5 chemical components was associated with 0.375 mg/dL increase in TC levels (95% confidence Interval (CI): 0.174-0.577) and 0.302 mg/dL increase in LDL-C (95% CI: 0.063, 0.540). Lead, organic carbon, and iron were major drivers of both associations. Component-specific models also show higher TC and LDL levels associated with interquartile range increases in organic carbon (0.472, 95% CI [0.027, 0.918] and 0.648 95% CI [0.136, 1.160]) and iron exposure (1.081, 95% CI [0.630, 1.532] and 0.748, 95% CI [0.318, 1.178]). In conclusion, we found PM2.5 exposure to be associated with elevated lipid levels. The associations differed by PM2.5 composition, highlighting organic carbon, lead, and iron and major drivers. These findings are highly significant for a population exposed to extreme air pollution event and susceptible to lipid alterations that might trigger cardiovascular events.

5
Assessment of occupational aerosol exposure for laboratory technicians: A quantitative study using {Phi}X174 phage as a substitute virus

Liu, B.; Liu, D.; Zhang, H.

2026-06-11 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355304 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.9%
Show abstract

This study aimed to clarify aerosol exposure risks throughout the workflow of a Biosafety Level 2 (BSL-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) laboratory, validate the suitability of the {Phi}X174 bacteriophage as an indicator virus, and provide evidence for biosafety control measures. The {Phi}X174 bacteriophage was used to simulate viral samples, and a concentration-bacteriophage plaque standard curve was constructed (R2=0.998). Five operational steps in a simulated PCR laboratory were quantitatively monitored for aerosol concentration using double-layer agar plates, with blank controls used to eliminate interference. Statistical analysis was employed to identify risk differences. Sample homogenization ((5.67 {+/-} 1.23) x 104 plaque-forming units (PFU)/m3) and nucleic acid extraction ((3.45 {+/-} 0.89) x 104 PFU/m3) were identified as high-/very high-risk steps. The viral load in the samples was strongly positively correlated with the aerosol concentration (r = 0.926, P <0.001), with aerosol levels linearly decreasing with increasing distance in high-risk steps. The {Phi}X174 bacteriophage demonstrated high detection sensitivity (101 PFU/ml) and demonstrated safety compatibility with BSL-2 laboratories. Aerosol risks in PCR laboratories exhibit step-specific differentiation, and {Phi}X174 serves as an ideal indicator virus. Proposed strategies such as equipment upgrades and personal protective equipment (PPE) grading can reduce exposure risks.

6
Global Health Injustice From Climate Change Driven By Consumption

Rupcic, L.; Yoo, D.; Levasseur, A.; Alexandre, C.; Laurent, A.; Jolliet, O.

2026-06-12 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355381 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.7%
Show abstract

Climate change imposes unequal health burdens from heat and cold, disproportionately harming vulnerable nations least responsible for emissions. A framework to quantitatively attribute this damage to different countries' consumption patterns has been missing. We developed a global framework linking consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions to country-specific health burdens, measured in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Our results quantify the profound scale of this externalized harm. For example, average North American consumption imposes a global health burden of 34 days of healthy life per person per year, without net damage suffered. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa endures 25 days per person per year despite minimal emissions. The resulting Health Injustice Index provides a powerful instrument for climate accountability, reframing responsibility in terms of tangible human health impacts.

7
Early assessment of potential airline-mediated importation risk during the 2026 DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak

Kinoshita, R.; Suzuki, M.; Yoneoka, D.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354569 medRxiv
Top 3%
0.6%
Show abstract

During the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, we projected potential airline-mediated importation risk using contemporary airline network and an externally calibrated Ebola importation hazard. Effective-distance analyses identified major international hub countries, including Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates, as higher-probability gateways within 30 days. These early projections provide a reproducible framework for real-time international situational awareness, while emphasizing that importation risk does not imply local transmission risk.

8
Seasonality, source type, and women's water labor: A longitudinal mixed-methods study in Kenya and Honduras

Mink, T.; Ogutu, E.; Patrick, M.; Sinharoy, S.; Bolanos Gamez, M. V.; Macler, A.; Ngo, C. P.; Oglesby, H.; Bendit, O.; White, J.; Antonio, S.; Ramos, G.; Roldan Medina Lopez, E.; Atandi, E.; Mwangi, P.; Koome, P.; Otieno Onyango, R.; Otuya, P. A.; Ruto, P.; Caruso, B. A.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355008 medRxiv
Top 4%
0.3%
Show abstract

Women shoulder the majority of water collection labor globally, yet how their water collection and water-related work experiences may change over time or by water source type remains insufficiently understood. We conducted a longitudinal, mixed-methods study in rural Kenya and Honduras to understand how women's experiences collecting water and performing water-related work varied between (a) two time points, (b) improved and unimproved water source types, and (c) water source location. Data were collected in 2023 and 2024 using interviews, observation, GPS-enabled watches, and scales to measure time and distance traveled, water weight and volume carried, and calories expended. 133 women participated in data collection (66 Kenya, 67 Honduras). We compared women's experience data by time point (2023 vs. 2024), source type (improved vs. unimproved), and source location (off-premises vs. on-premises) (t-test, Mann-Whitney U test). We also mapped participants' routes and activities to show which sources were visited, when, and for what activities. In Kenya, mean water collection time, distance, and caloric expenditure were significantly lower and water volume was significantly higher in 2024 when there were unexpected rains compared to 2023 when there was a persistent drought. When comparing source types during the 2023 drought, journeys to improved sources took significantly less time and energy and covered less distance than journeys to unimproved sources. These differences were not observed during the rainy conditions of 2024 when unimproved sources were closer and more accessible. In Honduras, water collection and water work burdens did not differ significantly by time point or source type. We found women with on-premises water access to still expend considerable time and caloric expenditure engaging in water work within their household compounds. Findings from Kenya suggest that water infrastructure improvements can reduce women's water collection burdens, though benefits may depend on and vary by season and source location. Findings from Honduras show that water labor does not end once water is in the household. Rather, substantial time and energy are expended carrying out water-related work even when sources are on premises, suggesting that efforts to assess water labor need to extend beyond collection alone. To meaningfully reduce burdens and ensure improved water sources are utilized during all seasons, initiatives need to consider source location, seasonal variability, and work beyond collection. Evaluations to assess infrastructure impacts on women's labor and well-being are needed and long overdue.

9
Multi-region sampling of the human small intestine using an ingestible device

Fu, B.; DeSchepper, L. B.; Sun, J.; McKeithen-Mead, S. A.; Kapili, B.; Ochoa-Andersen, P.; Spencer, S. P.; Fardeen, T.; Ricardo, M.; El Kamari, V.; Sinha, S.; Relman, D. A.; Grembi, J. A.; Shalon, D.; Estrela, S.; Huang, K. C.

2026-06-10 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26353912 medRxiv
Top 4%
0.3%
Show abstract

The human small intestine (SI) plays a central role in nutrient processing, host-microbe interactions, and immune regulation, yet remains poorly characterized due to the lack of minimally disruptive sampling methods. Here, we present a protocol for deploying, recovering, and analyzing samples collected using an ingestible device that enables multi-region, lumen-targeted SI sampling during normal digestion. The device incorporates a ~30-cm collapsible tube wound into pH- or time-responsive layers that sequentially unfurl in situ, typically capturing three spatially ordered samples with high yield and reliable retrieval. This protocol outlines study design, participant handling, device recovery, contamination control, and standardized workflows for analyses, including cell quantification, culturomics, sequencing, and metabolomics. We further describe benchmarking approaches for evaluating spatial resolution and strategies for assay prioritization when sample volume is limiting. By reducing participant burden and facilitating integration with stool, saliva, and clinical metadata, this approach enables longitudinal and large-cohort studies linking SI microbial ecology and host physiology to human health.

10
Comparative Evaluation of Mosquito Repellent Products in South Asia and North America: Efficacy, Safety, and Public Health Implications

Sahal, K.; Amin, S. M. A.; Mostafa, T.; Wang, S.; Colucci, B.; Shafoyat, M. U.; Yuan, Z. -m.; Cheng, G.

2026-06-08 toxicology 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355094 medRxiv
Top 4%
0.3%
Show abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases continue to pose significant public health challenges worldwide, particularly in densely populated regions of South Asia and parts of North America experiencing increasing vector prevalence due to climate and environmental changes. Commercial mosquito repellents are widely used as a primary preventive measure; however, their efficacy, safety, and public health impacts vary depending on formulation, active ingredients, environmental conditions, and user practices. This study presents a comparative evaluation of commonly used mosquito repellent products in South Asia and North America, including coils, vaporizers, sprays, creams, and Natural repellents. The research aims to assess repellent efficacy against major mosquito vectors, evaluate potential health and respiratory effects associated with prolonged exposure, and analyze consumer awareness and usage patterns across different regions. Laboratory-based efficacy testing and field observations were conducted to compare protection duration, repellency rate, and environmental performance under varying climatic conditions. Safety assessments included analysis of chemical composition, indoor air quality impact, and reported adverse health symptoms among users. The findings indicate significant differences in effectiveness and safety profiles among product categories and geographical regions. Synthetic repellents generally demonstrated higher repellency duration, while herbal formulations showed improved safety and environmental compatibility. The study highlights the importance of standardized evaluation protocols, regulatory oversight, and public awareness in promoting safe and effective mosquito control strategies. These findings may support policymakers, healthcare professionals, and manufacturers in improving mosquito repellent technologies and reducing the burden of mosquito-borne diseases globally.

11
Influencers, not just adverts: social media influencer exposure and tobacco use among urban youth in Kampala and Nairobi - a comparative mixed methods study

Jawahar Kanth, J. S.; Anish, T. M. R.; Odhiambo, B.; Lwembawo, K. D.; Micheal, S.; Arinaitwe, J.; Nakiyingi, L.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355037 medRxiv
Top 6%
0.1%
Show abstract

Tobacco control treaties were written for billboards and television, not for the people now selling lifestyles to young Africans. As mobile internet saturates East African cities, social media influencers have become an unmeasured channel, especially when it comes to tobacco promotion. We assessed the prevalence of tobacco use, its association with influencer exposure, and how urban youth interpret that exposure in two capitals with different tobacco laws. We conducted a comparative mixed-methods study among youth aged 18-29 years in Kampala, Uganda, and Nairobi, Kenya (January-August 2025), combining (i) a cross-sectional survey using systematic sampling at youth-dense venues (n=772), (ii) four online focus group discussions (FGDs; n=40), and (iii) content analysis of 30 tobacco-related posts from high-reach influencers (greater than 50,000 followers). We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression, thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke), and descriptive engagement metrics. Ever tobacco use among urban youth in East Africa was 29.3% (226/772), similar in Kampala (30.7%) and Nairobi (28.0%; p=0.409). After adjustment, exposure to influencers promoting tobacco independently predicted ever use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.82; p=0.001), alongside male sex (aOR 2.35) and age 26-29 years (aOR 1.99). Tertiary education (aOR 0.45) and never seeing tobacco content (aOR 0.26) were protective. Posts framed tobacco as aspirational lifestyle; 77% of sampled comments were positive and 47.5% expressed interest in trying the product. Influencer exposure behaved as a modifiable risk factor of a magnitude comparable to established demographic drivers. Tobacco control in the region must move from print-era advertising bans to platform governance, mandatory disclosure of paid promotion, and youth-led counter-marketing.

12
A Decade of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's FluSight Influenza Forecasting

Hines, A. G.; Mathis, S. M.; Johansson, M. A.; Biggerstaff, M.; Reed, C.; Borchering, R.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354941 medRxiv
Top 7%
0.1%
Show abstract

Since the U.S. 2013/14 influenza season, the CDC's FluSight Challenge has provided a platform for evaluating influenza forecasting models and fostering collaboration across institutions. The Challenge aims to improve the science and enhance the utility of infectious disease forecasts for public health decision making. We analyzed ten years of submitted forecasts (2014/15-2019/20 (influenza-like illness seasons) and 2021/22-2024/25 (hospital admissions seasons)) across a range of model types, including statistical, mechanistic, machine learning, and hybrid models. Influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasts were evaluated using the exponentiated logarithmic score (skill metric) while hospital admissions forecasts were evaluated using the log transformed relative Weighted Interval Score. Corresponding potential performance differences were assessed using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, and associations with team participation history were evaluated using Spearman's rank correlation. Model performance varied by season, and no single model type consistently outperformed others. In ILI seasons, statistical models generally performed better than mechanistic and machine learning models, though consistent differences were not observed in more recent hospital admissions seasons. Ensemble forecasts showed better overall performance across seasons, and the CDC's FluSight ensemble ranked among the top-performing forecasts every year. We also found a positive correlation between forecast accuracy and the number of years a team participated in the Challenge, with statistically significant associations in four seasons. These findings highlight the benefits of ensemble approaches and sustained engagement in improving forecasting performance, while also underscoring the continued value of forecast evaluation before and following the COVID-19 pandemic. Insights from the FluSight Challenge can guide future infectious disease forecasting efforts and support more effective public health preparedness.

13
Limitations of cross-border containment strategies for Bundibugyo ebolavirus

Middleton, C.; Larremore, D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354820 medRxiv
Top 7%
0.1%
Show abstract

An ongoing outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was deemed a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026. To prevent cross-border importation, many countries, including the United States, Canada, India, Thailand, and Kenya have already proposed containment strategies, and others are likely to follow suit. How well (or poorly) are screening and quarantine containment measures are likely to work? We leverage established epidemiological theory and develop a mathematical model of traveler screening and post-arrival quarantine for BVD to answer this question. We find that traveler screening via symptom screening or molecular testing will miss the majority of infected travelers, and should be complemented by post-arrival quarantine and monitoring of sufficient duration to detect those with long incubation periods. Our findings underscore the limitations of border screening and the importance of complementary measures like post-arrival quarantine to prevent local importation of BVD.

14
EMOD with Full Parasite Genetics: A modeling framework for evaluating parasite genetic metrics for operational malaria molecular surveillance

Ribado, J. V.; Suresh, J.; Bridenbecker, D.; Russell, J. R.; Lee, A.; Wenger, E.; Chabot-Couture, G.; Proctor, J. L.; Battle, K. E.; Bever, C. A.

2026-06-08 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355027 medRxiv
Top 7%
0.1%
Show abstract

Malaria molecular surveillance (MMS) is becoming increasingly common in endemic settings and has been proposed as a tool for monitoring parasite transmission to inform programmatic decision-making. However, the conditions under which parasite genetic metrics provide interpretable signals for broader use cases, such as assessing intervention impacts and detecting importation, remain under-characterized. We present EMOD with Full Parasite Genetics (FPG), a simulation framework designed to explore how parasite genetic metrics arise from transmission, intervention, importation, and sampling processes at programmatically relevant timescales. Using seasonal scenarios across a range of transmission intensities, we demonstrate three principal findings. First, genetic metrics can detect insecticide-treated net intervention impacts at seasonal and yearly timescales, but the strength, timing, and form of the relationship between genetic and epidemiological measures vary by metric and sampling timing. Second, importation can break the expected relationship between parasite genetic diversity from local transmission intensity at very low incidence, allowing low-transmission settings with substantial importation to maintain elevated diversity metrics. Third, convenience sampling practices, including sample size, collection timing, and the clinical composition of sampled populations, introduce non-random biases in genetic metric estimation in a way that obscures the true transmission signal. Together, these findings show that parasite genetic metrics can support operational surveillance, but that their interpretation depends on transmission context, importation, metric choice, and sampling design. EMOD FPG provides a framework for evaluating these dependencies in future setting-specific analyses and for guiding the interpretation of parasite genetic data across sites and over time.

15
Predictors of Road Safety behaviors among Boda-Boda Operators and their passengers in Kampala: A Mixed-Methods Study

Ainembabazi, R.; Kimuli, D.; Murami, T.; Wafula, S. T.; mgeyi, E.; Kwesiga, J. B.; Kibingo, P.; Mugumya, I.; Atulomah, N. O.; Nsubuga, D.

2026-06-07 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354085 medRxiv
Top 8%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background Despite existing road safety regulations, commercial motorcycle riders commonly referred to as "Boda Bodas" in Uganda continue to experience high rates of injuries due to road traffic accidents resulting from unsafe riding behaviours, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality among both riders and passengers. Safe riding behaviours are less well documented, as well as factors associated with the observance of those behaviours. This study aimed to determine factors associated with safe riding behaviors for both boda-boda riders and their passengers in Kampala Central Division. Methods A cross-sectional survey study design was conducted using a convergent parallel mixed-methods design guided by the PRECEDE model. Quantitative data were collected from 424 riders through structured questionnaires administered by trained research assistants. Binary Logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of safe road riding behaviors, and Adjusted Odds ratios (AORs) have been reported. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, with a p-value <0.05 considered statistically significant. Qualitative data were collected simultaneously with quantitative data through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 10 passengers to capture perceptions of rider behaviors and safety practices. Thematic analysis was applied, and results were triangulated to highlight convergences and divergences between quantitative and qualitative findings, providing a comprehensive understanding of safety determinants for both riders and passengers. Results Of the 424 riders (mean rider age was 29.56 {+/-} 5.71), overall, 276 (65.1%) of riders exhibited unsafe riding behaviors. In the bivariate analysis with Logistic regression, predisposing factors (education, marital status, religion, and willingness to obey traffic regulations), and reinforcing factors (family encouragement) were significantly associated with safe riding behaviors. However, in the adjusted model, secondary (AOR=0.50; 95% CI:0.30-0.85) and post-secondary education (AOR=0.57; 95% CI:0.33-0.98), being married (AOR=0.56; 95% CI:0.34-0.91), Christian religion (AOR=2.98; 95% CI:1.63-5.47), willingness to obey traffic regulations (AOR=0.41; 95% CI:0.24-0.70), union advocacy (AOR=1.76; 95% CI:1.03-3.01), and well-maintained roads (AOR=1.65; 95% CI:1.07-2.55) were significant predictors of safe riding behaviors. Qualitative interviews further highlighted barriers to safety, including a lack of helmets, over-speeding, disregard for traffic regulations, and poor road infrastructure. Conclusions Rider and passenger safety is still low, interdependent, and influenced by multiple factors. Integrated interventions focusing on education, stronger families, religious affiliations, union safety advocacy, and stricter enforcement of traffic regulations are vital for enhancing safety for both riders and passengers.

16
Local Influenza Forecasts Outperform State-Level Forecasts in the United States

Kim, D.; Pasco, R.; Johnson, K. E.; Fox, S. J.; Reich, N. G.; Meyers, L. A.

2026-06-08 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354836 medRxiv
Top 8%
0.0%
Show abstract

Accurate outbreak forecasts are critical for timely and effective public health response. In the United States, however, most forecasts are produced at the state level, which can mask substantial sub-state heterogeneity and limit their utility for local planning. We generated and evaluated forecasts of the percentage of Emergency Department visits attributable to influenza across 173 large metropolitan Health Service Areas (HSAs) using a gradient boosting quantile regression (GBQR) model, and compared their accuracy to forecasts derived from state-level data alone. At a one-week, two-week and three-week horizon, local forecasts outperformed state-based forecasts in 98.8%, 90.8%, and 78.6% of HSAs, respectively, achieving mean weighted interval scores that were on average a 39.2% lower (95% range: 5.9% to 76.7%), 19.6% lower (-6.3% to 59.5%) , and 11.4% lower (-11.7% to 44.9%), respectively. The performance advantage of local forecasting was strongest in HSAs representing a smaller share of their state's population and increased with the proportion of the HSA population living in urban areas and the number of metropolitan areas within a state. These results, based on an analysis of HSAs with populations greater than 250,000, demonstrate that fine-scale modeling can substantially improve forecast accuracy and highlight the potential value of local forecasts for outbreak preparedness and response.

17
Modeling the Impact of Pediatric RSV Immunization in Massachusetts, 2024--2025

Jones, L.; Ergas, R.; Tibbs, A.; Russo, E. T.; Norville, J.; Bingay, B.; Brown, C. M.; Reich, N. G.; Pasco, R.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354236 medRxiv
Top 8%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background Pediatric immunizations for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), including monoclonal antibodies for infants and vaccines for pregnant people, have become broadly available and can prevent severe RSV outcomes in infants. However, quantifying the impact of RSV immunization in prevention of severe pediatric illness at the population-level is limited by lack of RSV case surveillance data. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) conducted a modeling analysis using routine public health surveillance data to estimate the state-level impact of new RSV immunization products on Emergency Department (ED) visits and hospitalizations in Massachusetts for highest risk pediatric groups. Methods A scenario projection tool, called R.Scenario.Vax, was utilized to simulate RSV-associated ED hospital encounters by age group in the context of newly available immunizations. ED visit and hospitalization data from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP) during the time period 10/08/2017--10/19/2024 were analyzed, scaled to account for changes in RSV testing practices over time and missing encounter volume in historic data, and utilized to inform model fit of a "typical" RSV season. RSV immunization data from the Massachusetts Immunization Information System (MIIS) for the 2023--2024 and 2024--2025 RSV seasons informed high and moderate pediatric RSV immunization coverage scenarios and their impact was compared to a counterfactual reference scenario of no new immunizations. Median projections were quantitatively and qualitatively compared to observed 2024--2025 season data. Percent reduction in hospital encounters and encounters averted per 10,000 population were calculated for each scenario as compared to the reference. Results Projections for the youngest at-risk age groups showed significantly lower RSV-associated ED visits and hospitalizations during the 2024--2025 season for both high and moderate immunization coverage scenarios. Median projections for infants under 6 months old in the highest coverage scenario, wherein nearly all infants were immunized, showed 72.6% lower ED visits and 73.4% lower hospitalizations when compared to the reference scenario, equating to 262 ED visits and 85 hospitalizations averted per 10,000 population. Conclusions Our results support the use of modeling methods for public health insights and suggest that RSV immunizations for infant populations result in significantly lower RSV-related ED encounters in Massachusetts.

18
Registered Report: Artifact Index for Capacitive Electrocardiography Acquired with an Armchair

Warnecke, J. M.; Baumgärtel, D.; Bollmann, J.; Deserno, T. M.

2026-06-09 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.03.26353526 medRxiv
Top 9%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background Continuous health monitoring enables early detection of diseases and improves therapeutic outcomes. Non-intrusive biosignal sensors, such as capacitive ECG (cECG), offer a practical solution for daily monitoring in private environments, such as smart homes and vehicles. However, artifacts reduce signal quality and compromise reliability. Methods Following a registered report protocol (Warnecke JM et al. Plos One. 2021; 16(7):e0254780), we record data of 44 subjects and develop an artifact index for cECG. We use three signal quality indices (SQIs): the correlation of QRS complexes (corSQI), the R-peak detection consistency (bSQI) and the absolute amplitude ratio (aSQI). Our index classifies overlapping 10s segments with a step-width of 2s into clean or artifact segments. We label a 2s interval as artifacts if all five overlapping segments indicate artifacts. We record cECGs using an armchair with integrated electrodes in a single-arm study involving 44 subjects performing two activities -- reading and watching television (TV); for 11 minutes each. We record a time-synchronized reference ECG with skin electrodes on the chest. To evaluate the artifact index, we compare it with manually generated ground truth. Moreover, we evaluate the clothing materials cotton, linen, jeans, and polyester in 5 subjects. Results Watching TV results in longer, continuously clean signal durations than reading. On average, 88.3% of the signal has a minimum continuous clean duration of 10s, versus 79.8% during reading. All clothing configurations achieve a clean signal duration exceeding 10s. Among the SQI metrics, bSQI performs best, achieving an accuracy of 90.7% and an F1 score of 79.9%. Combining the three SQI metrics in a voting approach improves accuracy to 92.0% and F1 score to 82.1%. Discussion Our artifact index automatically distinguishes clean from artifact cECG segments, promoting health monitoring in unsupervised real-world settings, earlier disease detection, and preventive health management. A limitation is the investigation of only two scenarios (reading and watching TV).

19
Liver biopsy confirms precise and efficient correction of SERPINA1 after in vivo Base Editing in a Patient with Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency

Krooss, S. A.; Yang, T.; Yuan, Q.; Drick, N.; Sgodda, M.; Held, J.; Behrendt, P.; Hartleben, B.; Koczulla, R.; Ma, X.; Liu, Y.; Wedemeyer, H.; Janciauskiene, S.; Di Donato, N.; Cantz, T.; Wang, E.; Wu, Y.; Hoeper, M.; Xia, Q.; Ott, M.

2026-06-09 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354551 medRxiv
Top 9%
0.0%
Show abstract

Background: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) caused by the PI*ZZ mutation (Glu342Lys) results in hepatic accumulation of misfolded AAT-Z protein and reduced circulating AAT levels, leading to progressive liver disease and emphysema. Gene correction therapy represents a potentially curative approach by directly correcting the underlying genetic defect. We report the first case of successful hepatic gene correction with early histological and functional assessment. Methods/Case presentation: We report the case of a 66-year-old male patient with PI*ZZ AATD who underwent gene correction therapy within the YOLT-202 phase I/Ia clinical trial (clinical trial.gov ID NCT07193615). Ten weeks post treatment a liver biopsy was performed to re-evaluate pre-existing F2 liver fibrosis as measured by elastography before entering the study. Serum samples allowed functional assessment of the AAT-mediated elastase inhibition. Results: Liver biopsy did not show signs of hepatic inflammation and demonstrated 54% (Sanger) and 57% (Illumina) gene correction rate of the PI*ZZ variant on the DNA level with no bystander edits or off-target effects. Following a transient elevation of transaminases during the early post-treatment period, liver enzymes normalized. Monthly serum AAT measurements demonstrated biologically active and stable therapeutic levels throughout follow-up. Conclusions: This case demonstrates efficient and precise hepatic gene correction without concerning histological alterations and with substantial improvement of functional parameters, supporting the feasibility and safety of gene editing approaches for AATD.

20
Topological Deep Learning Identifies Polygenic Variant Clusters Across Familial Multimorbid Disorders

Vomo-Donfack, K. L.; Bousquet, G.; Falgarone, G.; Ginot, G.; Morilla, I.

2026-06-09 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354242 medRxiv
Top 9%
0.0%
Show abstract

Whole-genome sequencing comprehensively captures coding, non-coding and structural variation in families with suspected inherited disorders, yet its clinical utility remains constrained by an interpretation bottleneck: selecting a handful of relevant variants from millions of candidates. Current rule-based pipelines, anchored in ACMG/AMP criteria, excel at identifying highly penetrant Mendelian alleles but frequently miss variants of low-to-moderate penetrance, non-coding alterations and germline-somatic interactions. Here we introduce PolyCLIP-T, a topology-guided multimodal framework that transforms variant selection from a classification problem into a geometric discovery task. By contrastively aligning DNA-sequence embeddings with functional annotations, PolyCLIP-T constructs a unified latent space in which the displacement between reference and alternate embeddings quantifies the molecular perturbation induced by each variant. Persistent homology then identifies stable topological components - coherent variant groups shared among affected relatives - that transcend single-variant scoring logic. Applied to six families with multi-morbid cancer, autoimmune and cardiovascular disease, PolyCLIP-T recovered non-coding and structural candidates overlooked by conventional pipelines and revealed pleiotropic networks spanning disease categories. This approach provides an interpretable, scalable solution for genome-first investigations of disorders driven by polygenic architectures that evade single-variant analysis. The framework was developed and benchmarked on deeply characterised familial cohorts selected for transgenerational multimorbidity; validation in larger, independent populations will be essential to establish its generalisability. An interactive web tool is freely available at https://www.polyclip-t.uma.es/.