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Environmental Science & Technology

American Chemical Society (ACS)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Environmental Science & Technology's content profile, based on 64 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.06% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Population-based urinary pesticide biomonitoring in rural Wisconsin: Longitudinal patterns and determinants of glyphosate, AMPA, and 2,4-D, and other modern use pesticides

Schultz, A. A.; Lange, M.; Shelton, B.; Meinholz, E.; Esselman, D.; Paulsen, E.; Haban, A.; Kesner, V.; Rowe, M.; Burke, R.; Tisler, C.; Tomasallo, C.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361410 medRxiv
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Background: Population-based biomonitoring of contemporary-use pesticides remains limited in the United States, particularly in rural agricultural regions, and few studies have repeated measurements within the same individuals over time. Methods: We analyzed 28 urinary pesticide-related biomarkers among 600 adults from the population-based Survey of the Health of Wisconsin with archived urine collected during 2008-2016; 296 participants provided repeat urine and updated exposure information in 2025. Detection frequencies, co-detection, and within-person detection patterns were characterized. Generalized estimating equations were used for stacked, repeated-measures analyses of factors associated with detection of aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA), glyphosate, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), and any of these three. Prospective-only analyses evaluated more detailed agricultural and recent exposure measures. Results: Glyphosate, AMPA, and 2,4-D were detected in 7.7%, 6.2%, and 4.3% of retrospective specimens and 5.4%, 3.1%, and 4.1% of prospective specimens, respectively. Co-detection and persistent detection across the 9 to 17-year interval was rare. In repeated-measures models, greater fruit and vegetable intake, older age, and male sex were associated with higher 2,4-D detection. Lower household income was associated with lower AMPA detection, while afternoon/evening collection was associated with higher AMPA detection. In prospective analyses, working on field-crop agricultural land showed the strongest agricultural associations, particularly for 2,4-D and detection of any of the three pesticides. Associations were not seen with self-reported conventional versus organic produce consumption. Conclusions: Urinary pesticide detections were generally infrequent in this Wisconsin population. Diet and direct agricultural activities may be more informative exposure pathways than residing near cropland or private well drinking-water characteristics.

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Point-of-Care Breath Volatile Organic Compound Analysis as a Tool for Lung Cancer Screening: A Pilot Feasibility Study

Pichkar, Y.; Manolakos, S.; Phillips, K. M.; Schabath, M. B.; Chaudhary, A.

2026-08-31 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361331 medRxiv
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Background: Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening reduces lung cancer mortality but is limited by low uptake and associated with high rates of false-positives and indeterminate-nodules. Breath volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis is a non-invasive candidate biomarker approach that could complement LDCT, but prior work has relied on laboratory-based high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS), limiting point-of-care deployment. Methods: In this pilot study, breath samples were collected from 40 patients with treatment-naive, pathologically confirmed non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and 25 lung-cancer-screening-eligible healthy controls. Paired samples were analyzed via a compact point-of-care GC-MS platform (CLARION) and a laboratory HRMS reference. Diagnostic classification models were built independently for each platform using elastic net logistic regression with leave-one-out cross-validation, and performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: CLARION identified 103 VOCs across breath specimens, compared to over 900 identified by HRMS. Despite this difference in panel size, CLARION achieved diagnostic performance nearly identical to HRMS for distinguishing NSCLC cases from controls (AUC 0.864 vs. 0.863). Compared to controls, performance statistics were similar for early-stage NSCLC (AUC 0.854 vs. 0.841) and adenocarcinoma (AUC 0.770 vs. 0.787). VOCs of interest include p-cymene, phenol, propylbenzene, tetradecane, {beta}-ocimene, 2,3-dihydro-indole, and 1-methylthio-(Z)-1-propene. Conclusion: A compact, point-of-care breath GC-MS platform achieved diagnostic performance for NSCLC detection comparable to a laboratory HRMS reference despite a substantially smaller detected VOC panel. These findings support continued development of point-of-care breath VOC testing as a non-invasive, field-deployable complement to LDCT-based lung cancer screening.

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Wastewater Treatment Plants as Representative Sentinel Sites in Infectious Disease Surveillance

Fiatsonu, E.; Hill, D.; Christopher, D.; Larsen, D.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361522 medRxiv
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Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a powerful population-level surveillance tool, but its coverage is structurally concentrated in in-network urban areas, potentially leaving rural populations underrepresented. Routine human movement between sewered (in-network) and unsewered (off-network) areas may, however, cause wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) measurements to reflect infectious disease dynamics beyond sewer boundaries. We evaluated this hypothesis using daily clinical COVID-19 testing data (January 2021-April 2022) across New York State excluding New York City (NYC). We disaggregated weekly cases and tests into in-network (WWTP catchment area) and off-network (outside WWTP catchment area) components applied to two geographic frameworks: administrative counties (N = 53 mixed-coverage) and mobility-defined communities identified through Walktrap community detection applied to census tract-level movement networks (N = 32 mixed-coverage). In/off-network COVID-19 trends were strongly correlated under both frameworks. County-level statewide aggregate correlations were high (incidence r = 0.994, positivity r = 0.996), as were individual county correlations (median r = 0.909 and 0.932, respectively). Mobility-defined community-level statewide correlations were similarly strong (r = 0.990 and 0.992), with comparable unit-level medians (r = 0.877 and 0.894). The mobility-defined community framework provided better population balance between in-network and off-network strata (87.5% vs. 69.8% in balanced range) and a higher floor on representativeness (minimum r = 0.440 vs. 0.177). Population size was the dominant predictor of in-network/off-network alignment at both scales; wastewater infrastructure density and off-network signal variability provided additional explanatory power at the mobility-defined community level. WWTPs broadly represent COVID-19 dynamics in surrounding off-network populations, supporting their use as sentinel surveillance sites. Representativeness weakens in smaller, more rural communities, and mobility-defined communities provide a complementary framework for identifying where this occurs.

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From Bone-centric to Kidney-centric: Environment-Dependent Shift of Spaceflight Renal Stone Pathways

Shi, J.; Gu, Q.; Pan, J.; Yang, A.; Fan, M.

2026-08-31 urology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26360881 medRxiv
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Human deep-space missions face bone-kidney risks that cannot be extrapolated from six-month ISS data. We built a 12-state Ca-bone-urine-stone mechanistic ODE model and jointly calibrated its 11 physiological parameters on eight ISS targets by Bayesian identification (M0 base = 19-D; M1 extension adds a GCR-bone coupling term for parsimony testing only), then propagated the M0 posterior to four environments (ISS, Lunar subsurface, Lunar surface, Mars). Lumbar-lower BMD loss increases with mission duration and partial-gravity unloading (ISS 180 d -4.83% -> Mars 730 d -12.15%; 2^3 factorial: duration 82.9%, gravity 12.5%, GCR main effect ~ 0), whereas stone rate follows the opposite gradient (ISS 16.1 vs Mars 13.1 per 1000 person-years), reflecting weakened partial-gravity bone resorption alongside residual urinary chemistry changes. The dominant pathway thus shifts from bone-centric on the ISS to kidney-centric on Mars, where residual urinary-chemistry changes-not bone resorption-drive stone risk. The direct GCR-bone coupling term is unidentifiable at current ISS doses (DeltaWAIC = +0.0076 +/- 0.126 SE), so M0 is retained as the main inference model. Bisphosphonates provide >=84% BMD protection but leave a urinary-chemistry residual, so bisphosphonate monotherapy would underestimate Mars stone risk; potassium-magnesium-citrate combinations (RRR_RSS 51%) should therefore be added to deep-space countermeasures. A Lunar-surface 365-day mission is the earliest environment on the NASA roadmap to cross a composite RED threshold. That profile differs from the regolith-shielded 180-day case in both cumulative GCR (~69x) and duration (2x), so a shielding-specific effect cannot be isolated here; forcing the GCR coupling terms to zero leaves all four composite tiers unchanged (0/4, Supp S24), and the shielded 180-day profile is YELLOW rather than GREEN. Independent hold-out validation (Culliton 2025 60-day HDT-bedrest RCT, n=8 control arm of n=24 total) supports the M0 posterior predictive distribution on the lumbar-BMD sub-scope.

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Characterizing Preschool Children's Multi-Matrix Air Pollutant Exposures Across Home and Early Childhood Education Settings: A Paired Silicone Wristband Study Protocol

Mutic, A. D.; McCauley, L.; Andrew, A.; Fitzpatrick, A.

2026-08-31 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361470 medRxiv
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Background: Children spend more than 90% of their time indoors, and early childhood education settings (ECEs) are an understudied, high-occupant-density indoor microenvironment where exposure to volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, and other toxicants has been documented. Limited knowledge exists on ECE-specific exposures affecting young children and how they compare to exposures in the home. Methods: This prospective, repeated-measures pilot study targeted enrollment of 44 preschool-aged children and 8 ECE staff across two geographically and sociodemographically distinct ECEs in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. Paired silicone wristbands, one home-designated and one ECE-designated, were exchanged between settings across three consecutive days and nights beginning at enrollment to characterize microenvironment-specific exposure. A single spot urine sample was also collected from each child. Continuous indoor air quality monitoring was conducted in two classrooms per site. Caregivers and ECE staff completed structured questionnaires assessing home and ECE environmental characteristics, child respiratory risk, and protocol feasibility and acceptability. Feasibility was evaluated using eight pre-specified indicators spanning recruitment and enrollment, wristband wear duration and loss by microenvironment, urine sample collection completeness, and survey completion by instrument and respondent group. Conclusion: This pilot will establish feasibility and acceptability parameters for a paired, multi-matrix silicone wristband protocol across home and ECE microenvironments. Findings will inform the design, sample size, and power calculations for a subsequent study testing indoor air interventions and pediatric respiratory outcomes in ECEs. Feasibility outcomes are reported in a companion manuscript.

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Warming, thermal variability, and the 96% decline in childhood respiratory-infection mortality in China: a national time-series analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and the C-LSAT high-resolution climate dataset

Li, D.; Miao, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Chen, H.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.

2026-09-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361879 medRxiv
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Background Childhood respiratory mortality in China has fallen by over 90% in three decades alongside sustained national warming, yet national long-run evidence on temperature and child respiratory mortality is lacking. Methods We linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 mortality estimates for China - lower respiratory infections (LRI), ages 0-19, and asthma, ages 0-24, 1990-2021 - with C-LSAT 0.5 deg gridded temperature data (1990-2019), aggregated nationally and to five climate zones. Four annual indicators (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered regressions of log mortality rates with Newey-West standard errors. A bootstrapped (500 resamples) quadratic model probed the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), with PM2.5-adjusted analyses and future-exposure, permutation, and detrended falsification tests. Results LRI deaths fell by 96.3% (330,194 in 1990 to 12,098 in 2021; 95% uncertainty interval 9,669-14,891) and asthma deaths by 94.9% (3,287 to 167), while mean temperature rose 0.364 deg C per decade and diurnal temperature range narrowed 0.092 deg C per decade. Baseline coefficients were large (mean temperature -1.696, SE 0.174; diurnal temperature range +2.408, SE 0.336; seasonal amplitude -0.162, SE 0.082; interannual variability +2.924, SE 1.514, per 1 deg C in log rate), but the future-exposure test failed and detrending nullified every coefficient: the associations are trend-level, and short-cycle causal effects are not identifiable. Nor was the national MMT identifiable - observed temperature support spans only 6.66-8.13 deg C, and the nominal turning point of 35.84 deg C is an extrapolation artifact (quadratic term p = 0.963). Within the observed range, warming and declining mortality moved in the same direction. Conclusions The 96% decline in childhood respiratory mortality cannot be attributed to warming. China sits on the low-temperature side of the optimum, and the marginal direction of future warming requires stronger designs to establish. The falsification framework offers a discipline for climate-health inference in China.

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The impact of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone on respiratory prescribing: a synthetic control study

Williams, G. H.; Allen, T.

2026-09-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361515 medRxiv
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Urban air pollution remains a significant public health concern, contributing to premature deaths and adverse health outcomes. However, there is little causal research evaluating the effectiveness of policies designed to improve air quality. This study assesses the impact of all three stages of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on air pollution, via PM2.5 levels, and respiratory health, via prescription records for bronchodilator and respiratory corticosteroid medications. Analyses are at general practice level, using a generalised synthetic control method to estimate causal impacts. Stage 1 was associated with a statistically significant but negligible 0.77% reduction in PM2.5 levels, with no corresponding change in prescribing. Stage 2 produced a paradoxical 2.69% increase in PM2.5, alongside a 4.44% decrease in inhaled corticosteroid quantity but a 12.51% increase in average daily quantity (ADQ) usage, suggesting a worsening of disease severity among existing patients. Stage 3 yielded a 2.69% PM2.5 reduction and a modest 2.18% decrease in bronchodilator ADQ usage. Spillover effects beyond the ULEZ boundary were statistically significant, but negligible. We find overall that the ULEZ had minimal effects on both air quality and respiratory prescribing across all three stages. These findings provide new insights into the effectiveness of ULEZ policies in reducing air pollution and its associated health impacts, suggesting the zone's effects are considerably smaller than previously reported, and that integration with broader policy measures may be necessary to achieve meaningful public health gains.

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Small dried fish as an affordable source of key micronutrients in Madagascar: nutritional benefits and contamination risks

Todimazava, L. D.; Darias, M. J.; Mouquet-Rivier, C.; Mahafina, J.; Lamy, T.

2026-09-01 nutrition 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361595 medRxiv
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Micronutrient deficiencies are prevalent in Madagascar, where diets rely heavily on starchy staples and access to animal-source foods is limited. Small dried fish (SDF) are widely available, yet their nutritional value and health risks remain poorly documented. We combined market surveys, taxonomic identification, and micronutrient and heavy metal analyses of nine SDF types collected along National Road 7. The samples encompassed 33 fish families, were dominated by small pelagic species (Clupeidae and Engraulidae), and were appreciated by consumers. A daily portion (5 g for infants; 10 g for young children and women of childbearing age) contributed substantially to Recommended Nutrient Intakes (RNIs). Across samples and groups, SDF were rich (>30% of RNI) in selenium and, for infants and young children, in calcium. All samples were a source of (>15% of RNI), or rich in, phosphorus, whereas iron contributions were more variable but often substantial. Several samples exceeded 100% of RNIs for selenium, calcium, iron, or manganese in infants and young children, and some were also sources of magnesium and, less frequently, zinc. Vitamin A was absent from sun-dried samples but detected in a smoked freshwater type. Heavy metal concentrations varied markedly, and portions of several types led to estimated exposures to inorganic arsenic or cadmium exceeding reference values, whereas freshwater species and some pelagic types showed a more favorable nutrition-risk balance. Overall, SDF are affordable, nutrient-dense foods with strong potential to alleviate micronutrient deficiencies in Madagascar, while highlighting the need for type-specific guidance to balance nutritional benefits and contamination risks.

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Age Differences in the Reproducibility of Seasonal Peak Timing for Alcohol-Associated Injury: A Seven-Year Cosinor and Jackknife Analysis of U.S. Emergency Department Surveillance Data

Ghuman, D.; Achar, T.; Gambhirrao, D.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361527 medRxiv
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Background Alcohol-associated injury is a leading cause of emergency department (ED) utilization in the United States and a clinically important driver of preventable morbidity across the adult lifespan. Prior surveillance research has characterized how the rate and severity of alcohol-associated injury vary by patient age, but whether the seasonal timing of injury risk is equally predictable across age groups (a question directly relevant to the timing of clinical screening intensification and public health intervention) has not been formally tested. Methods We conducted a retrospective surveillance analysis of 45,876 alcohol-associated ED visits among adults aged 18 years and older, identified from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS), 2019-2025 (weighted national estimate: 2,092,319 visits), using the structured Alcohol_Involved indicator introduced into NEISS case abstraction in 2019. Patients were stratified by sex and five age groups (18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64, and [&ge;]65 years). Single-harmonic cosinor (Poisson) regression was used to estimate the seasonal peak day of injury risk (acrophase) for each stratum. To assess reliability, we performed leave-one-year-out jackknife resampling (seven iterations per group), case-resampling bootstrap confidence intervals (1,000 iterations), and likelihood-ratio tests of seasonal-phase interactions. Results Peak injury timing differed significantly across age groups (X^2 [8] = 2356.2, p < .0001). Adults aged 25-64 years showed a highly reproducible early-to-mid-July peak, with jackknife estimates shifting [&le;]14 days when any single study year was excluded. Adults aged [&ge;]65 years showed significant seasonal variation annually (all p < .0001, amplitude comparable to younger groups) but a pooled peak estimate that shifted by up to 100 days across jackknife iterations. Sex-stratified analyses revealed that this instability was driven entirely by females aged [&ge;]65 years (jackknife range: 332 days, peak consistently in late October through early January) rather than males aged [&ge;]65 (jackknife range: 31 days, peak consistently in early August). Hospital admission rates increased monotonically with age from 9.0% (18-24 years) to 31.8% ([&ge;]65 years). Conclusions Alcohol-associated injury follows a reproducible, calendar-stable summer seasonal pattern in adults aged 25-64 years. Among adults [&ge;]65 years, the previously reported temporal instability is concentrated in the female subgroup, whose seasonal injury risk does not converge on a fixed calendar window. These findings suggest that fixed-calendar prevention and screening strategies are well suited to working-age adults and older men, but older women may require a year-round, individually tailored approach. Keywords: Alcohol-related injury; Emergency department; Seasonality; Age factors; Sex differences; Injury surveillance; Cosinor analysis; Older adults

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Ultra-High Multiplexing Enables Near-Full-Length 16S rRNA Gene Amplicon Sequencing of Over 1,200 Gut Microbiome Samples on a Single Nanopore Flow Cell

McPhillips, C. H.; Reilly, E. T.; Stolberg-Mathieu, G.; Nielsen, K.; Gottlieb, A. D.; Madjarov, G.; Roager, H. M.; Nielsen, D. S.; Krych, L.

2026-08-29 microbiology 10.64898/2026.08.29.747698 medRxiv
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Next-generation sequencing (NGS) of the prokaryotic 16S rRNA gene revolutionized gut microbiome research two decades ago. However, short read lengths remain an inherent limitation of platforms such as the widely used Illumina platforms (2 x 150-300 bp). Recent advances in Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) flow cell chemistry (R10.4.1) have substantially improved sequencing accuracy. Combined with a custom multiple-primer strategy that comprehensively targets 16S rRNA gene variants to generate near-full-length amplicons, this approach enables read-by-read taxonomic classification, a feature not feasible with short-read sequencing platforms. Although our multiple-primer strategy could enable parallel sequencing of more than 18,000 samples (192 x 96), current flow cell capacity offers sufficient sequencing depth for approximately 1,000-1,500 samples. To validate the scalability and our per-read classification pipeline, we show that more than a thousand human fecal microbiome samples spiked with two bacterial strains (Imtechella halotolerans and Allobacillus halotolerans), not otherwise present in human fecal samples, can be successfully sequenced on a single flow cell, achieving a per-molecule error rate sufficient for direct per-read classification and at an adequate read depth for downstream analysis. This level of scalability significantly reduces per-sample costs, making the approach more accessible to a broader research community. To embrace these advancements, we have developed RubyRed, a pipeline that processes raw sequencing data and assigns taxonomic classifications on a per-read basis. Using spike-in references (I. halotolerans and A. halotolerans), we demonstrate high mean single-read sequencing accuracy (99% and 98.9%, respectively), with the majority of reads exceeding the canonical threshold required for species-level taxonomic classification based on the 16S rRNA gene.

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Unravelling genomic and functional traits of two biocontrol and plant growth-promoting Pseudomonas endophytes

Santoyo, G.; Flores, A.; Castelan-Sanchez, H. G.; Valenzuela-Ruiz, V.; de los Santos-Villalobos, S.; Mitra, D.; Babalola, O. O.; Schoebitz, M.; Orozco-Mosqueda, M. d. C.

2026-08-29 microbiology 10.64898/2026.08.28.747936 medRxiv
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Plant growth-promoting bacterial endophytes represent a sustainable strategy for enhancing agricultural productivity while reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. This study focused on the genomic and functional characterization of two endophytic bacterial strains, R11F and R19M, isolated from bean and maize roots, respectively. Comparative analyses based on 16S rRNA gene sequences, average nucleotide identity (ANI), and genome-to-genome distance calculations (GGDC) classified both isolates as Pseudomonas palleroniana. Comparative genomic analyses revealed highly conserved genomes containing genes associated with plant colonization, phosphate solubilization, stress adaptation, heavy metal resistance, and hydrocarbon degradation. Genome mining further identified 17 and 18 biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs) in R11F and R19M, respectively, including non-ribosomal peptide synthetases (NRPS), pyoverdine, NRP-metallophores, RiPP-like compounds, arylpolyenes, {beta}-lactones, terpenes, NAGGN, and hydrogen cyanide. Strain-specific BGCs associated with syringomycin and viscosin biosynthesis were identified in R11F, whereas R19M harbored clusters related to asplenin and kolossin biosynthesis. In vitro assays confirmed indole production, phosphate solubilization, and siderophore production, as well as the ability of both strains to grow in nitrogen-free medium. Both strains significantly inhibited the growth of Fusarium oxysporum, Phytophthora cinnamomi, and Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Furthermore, plant inoculation assays demonstrated host-dependent growth promotion, with R11F showing the most consistent improvements in plant growth parameters in tomato, wheat, and lentil. Overall, the integration of comparative genomics and experimental validation demonstrates that P. palleroniana R11F and R19M possess complementary traits associated with plant growth promotion, pathogen suppression, saline stress adaptation, and bioremediation.

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When Screening is a Death Sentence: A qualitative study of fear and delay of cervical pre-cancer screening in Kilombero District, Tanzania

Somba, M.; Dumbaugh, M.; Mhalu, G.; Merten, S.; Mtenga, S.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361100 medRxiv
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Background: In Tanzania, over 10,000 women aged 15-44 are diagnosed with cervical cancer annually, and more than 6525 die. The majority are diagnosed at an advanced stage, which contributes to delays in treatment enrollment and illness complications. Multiple factors can affect womens willingness and ability to access cervical pre-cancer screening. Purpose: To explore the barriers and facilitators to attending cervical pre-cancer screening among women living in a resource-constrained area of Southern Tanzania Methods: A qualitative study of 17 focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews was conducted from December 2023 to July 2024. Data collection took place in the community and health centers of a town and the surrounding rural areas in Kilombero district. The study used purposive sampling to recruit 112 women and 23 men aged 18- 50+ years. Results: Fear of death emerged as a central theme in the data, acting as both a barrier to and a facilitator of womens screening behavior. Women linked death with the screening procedure, receiving results and undergoing treatment. Participants mistrusted the speculum itself and linked it to pain, vaginal infection, and infertility. Conversely, fear of physical and social death motivated other women to attend the screening to learn about their health and prevent the consequences of a positive diagnosis. Public trust in the healthcare system and the role of health information sources were also identified as influencing women's decisions to undergo or not undergo screening. Conclusion: Our findings showed that cervical cancer screening uptake is influenced by fear of death and other co-factors. To improve early cervical cancer screening, programs and policy interventions are needed to raise awareness of the disease while also addressing womens specific concerns. Also, strengthening structural dimensions such as the availability of the healthcare workforce, healthcare facilities, and ensuring equitable service availability are essential to reducing cervical cancer complications and avoidable mortality.

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Urinary collagen type I degradation products as common fibrosis biomarkers in chronic diseases

Mina, I. K.; Hussain, Y.; Siwy, J.; Catanese, L.; Rupprecht, H.; Beige, J.; Staessen, J. A.; Metzger, J.; Persson, F.; Rossing, P.; Delles, C.; Schanstra, J. P.; Bannaga, A.; Vlahou, A.; Mischak, H.; Arasaradnam, R. P.; Latosinska, A.

2026-08-31 nephrology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361420 medRxiv
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Background: Fibrosis, characterised by excessive accumulation of collagen type I (COL1), is a common feature of chronic diseases, including liver diseases (LDs), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF). COL1 degradation products can be detected in urine by proteomics/ peptidomics analyses and may serve as non-invasive biomarkers of fibrosis. We aimed to identify a common molecular signature of fibrosis across these diseases that may ultimately guide interventions to slow disease progression and prevent organ damage. Methods: Using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS), naturally occurring COL1 degradation products (peptides) in the urine of patients with fibrotic disease, LDs (n=127), CKD (n=263) or HF (n=187), were investigated and compared with the same number of matched controls. Disease-associated COL1 peptides were identified separately for each condition, and peptides showing consistent associations across the three diseases were selected to define a common fibrosis signature. A support vector machine model based on the selected peptides was developed and validated in independent cohorts of patients with LDs (n=110), CKD (n=93), HF (n=32) and controls (n=643). Results: We identified a common fibrotic signature consisting of 50 COL1 degradation products, mainly downregulated in fibrosis. A model based on these peptides achieved a strong performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.935 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.917-0.953, p<0.0001) in an external validation cohort comprising pooled disease groups (LDs, CKD, and HF) and controls. Performance was maintained in LDs, CKD and HF, with AUCs of 0.917 (95% CI 0.890-0.944, p<0.0001), 0.951 (95% CI 0.931-0.971, p<0.0001) and 0.950 (95% CI 0.903-0.997, p<0.0001), respectively. The model scores were significantly associated with fibrosis stage in LDs (p=0.0097) and with interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy in CKD (p=0.045). Conclusion: A model of urinary COL1 peptides captures a shared collagen degradation signature across organs and diseases, enabling the non-invasive assessment of fibrosis irrespective of its origin. As these peptides exclusively reflect collagen degradation, the findings suggest impaired collagen degradation as a driver in fibrosis. Future clinical studies are warranted to evaluate the utility of this model for early fibrosis detection and earlier implementation of anti-fibrotic interventions.

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Community health system vital signs and preventable neonatal mortality in Mashonaland West, Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Gabida, M.; Kazonga, E.; Bowa, K.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361392 medRxiv
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Abstract Preventable neonatal deaths remain a major public health problem in Zimbabwe, where near-universal antenatal and facility-delivery coverage coexist with a rising neonatal mortality rate. This study evaluated whether institutionalising three core "vital signs" of the community health system (a trained village health worker (VHW) workforce, functional community governance structures, and modified women's and men's participatory learning and action groups) reduces preventable neonatal deaths in Mashonaland West Province. An embedded QUAN (qual) mixed-methods design was used, with a two-arm, parallel-group cluster-randomised controlled trial as the dominant strand. Fifty-two ward-level clusters were randomised 1:1 to the institutionalised community health system package or to standard Ministry of Health and Child Care community services, and 984 pregnant women were enrolled between 1 September 2020 and 31 October 2021, with each mother-infant pair followed to 28 days after delivery, yielding 973 mother-infant pairs for intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was neonatal death within 28 days of life, expressed per 1,000 live births. The primary analysis used a three-level mixed-effects log-binomial regression model with cluster and community-health-worker random intercepts, adjusted for pre-specified covariates. Supervised machine-learning classifiers with leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and multilevel logistic models were fitted as supplementary analyses. An embedded longitudinal process evaluation used key informant interviews and focus group discussions, which were analysed thematically and integrated with the quantitative findings. The neonatal mortality rate was 44.8 per 1,000 live births in the intervention arm versus 110.1 per 1,000 in the control arm. The adjusted risk ratio for neonatal death was 0.43 (95% CI 0.26-0.70; p < 0.001), a 57% relative reduction, with a number needed to treat of 16 mother-infant pairs (95% CI 11-29). Low birthweight (<2,500 g), birth interval under two years, and low community women's literacy were the strongest risk factors, while trained VHWs, functional community governance, early antenatal care, and sustained participatory group attendance were independently protective. The women's and men's groups were protective in a dose-dependent manner, becoming significant at four or more cycles (about 14 meetings) (adjusted odds ratio 0.71; 95% CI 0.60-0.85; p = 0.001). A random forest classifier discriminated against neonatal deaths with a cross-validated area under the curve of 0.842 and a sensitivity of 0.912. Qualitative findings converged with the trial results, identifying male engagement, earlier care-seeking, danger-sign literacy, social-network activation, and community death audits as the behavioural and structural mechanisms of change. Institutionalising the community health system package (trained VHWs, functional governance, early antenatal engagement, and sustained participatory groups) was associated with a substantial reduction in preventable neonatal deaths. The findings suggest that in high-coverage, high-mortality settings, the binding constraint is structural rather than clinical, and that scaling functional community governance and workforce infrastructure in the most disadvantaged communities may accelerate progress toward neonatal survival targets. The principal limitations are a one-year follow-up period, the rarity of neonatal death, and concurrent national programming that only partially reached the control clusters. Trial registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202607591142118 (https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=PACTR202607591142118); registered retrospectively on 7 July 2026.

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Multi-organ aging quantified from routine chest CT predicts chronic disease risk and mortality

Sato, J.; Salehjahromi, M.; Zafar, A.; Muneer, A.; Xu, X.; Zhu, E.; Vokes, N. I.; Cascone, T.; Le, X.; Altan, M.; Gardner, E. E.; Sheshadri, A.; Ostrin, E. J.; Salahudeen, A. A.; Li, T.; Merad, M.; Chaudhuri, A. A.; Gerber, D. E.; Kay, F. U.; Godoy, M. C. B.; Carter, B. W.; Shroff, G. S.; Byers, L. A.; Chung, C.; Jaffray, D.; Rice, D.; Liao, Z.; Chang, J. Y.; Vaporciyan, A. A.; Gibbons, D. L.; Wu, C. C.; Heymach, J. V.; Zhang, J.; Wu, J.

2026-08-31 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361434 medRxiv
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Biological aging occurs heterogeneously across individuals and organs. However, current measures of biological age incompletely capture organ-specific differences in health and disease risk. Because chest CT visualizes multiple thoracic organs, it offers an opportunity to quantify structural aging across organ systems. Here, we developed MOSAIC-Age, a framework characterizing eight organ-specific aging clocks on chest CT. The clocks were developed and validated using 9,971 CT scans from CT-RATE and MIDRC, and subsequently locked and applied to two independent prospective cohorts with 35,293 participants from the National Lung Screening Trial and Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study. CT-derived biological age gaps (BAGs) were examined in relation to lifestyle and socioeconomic factors, prevalent comorbidities, incident chronic diseases, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Higher BAGs, indicating organs that appeared older on CT than expected for their chronological age, were broadly associated with adverse health characteristics, chronic disease burden, and increased mortality risk. Multiple disease outcomes were associated with aging across several organs, whereas in multivariable analyses including all eight organ-specific BAGs, the remaining associations were more organ specific. A greater number of markedly older-appearing organs and a faster pace of aging were each associated with higher mortality. Together, these findings demonstrate that routine chest CT captures both shared and organ-specific patterns of biological aging and establish CT-derived organ aging as a quantitative imaging biomarker for assessing multi-organ health and long-term disease risk.

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Clinically Generalisable End-to-End Graph Learning for CT Image-Based Multitask Stroke Diagnosis

Lu, Z.; Uddin, S.; Uribe, S.; White, S.; Martins, R. T.; Chau, S.; Mosaddek, A. S. M.; Islam, M. S.; Nahar, N.; Azad, A. K. M.; Hossain, K. M. N.; Choudhury, H. S.; Hasan, K. M. R.; Mosaddek, N.; Rahman, S.; Hossain, M. M.; Sizar, K. M. M. H.; Angione, C.; Lio, P.; Islam, M. T.; Moni, M. A.

2026-08-31 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360026 medRxiv
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Stroke remains a leading cause of mortality and long-term disability worldwide, yet rapid diagnosis is often limited by the shortage of trained radiologists, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Automated analysis of CT imaging offers a potential solution, but existing methods often struggle to achieve clinically generalisable performance while jointly addressing multiple diagnostic tasks. Here we present the Intelligent Integrated Stroke Diagnosis System IISDS, an end-to-end deep learning framework built upon StrokeGNN, a graph-based architecture that integrates 3D contextual feature extraction with U-Net-based 2D lesion segmentation to enable comprehensive stroke analysis from non-contrast CT scans. IISDS performs stroke subtype classification, lesion segmentation and lesion volume estimation within a unified pipeline. To develop and validate the system, we collected and curated BGD-ISD through a collaboration between AI researchers, neurologists, radiologists and clinicians, resulting in a large multi-centre dataset comprising 1,507 CT scans from 597 stroke cases acquired across six hospitals and medical centres in Bangladesh. Across BGD-ISD and multiple publicly available datasets, IISDS achieves state-of-the-art performance on all tasks, improving segmentation accuracy by [&ge;]0.011 Dice score, reducing lesion volume estimation error by [&ge;]0.3 average symmetric surface distance (ASSD), and increasing classification performance by [&ge;]0.018 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) compared with existing approaches. These results demonstrate the potential of graph-based deep learning to enable clinically generalisable, automated and scalable stroke diagnosis from CT imaging, supporting rapid clinical decision-making, particularly in healthcare environments with limited access to expert radiological interpretation.

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Patient factors influencing participation in aerobic exercise during inpatient and outpatient rehabilitation post stroke: a prospective cohort study

Barzideh, A.; Devasahayam, A. J.; Marzolini, S.; Munce, S.; Sibley, K. M.; Inness, E. L.; Mansfield, A.

2026-08-31 rehabilitation medicine and physical therapy 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361451 medRxiv
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Background: Aerobic exercise is recommended during stroke rehabilitation to improve cardiorespiratory fitness and support recovery; however, participation rates remain low. While institutional and system-level barriers have been widely examined, less is known about how individual patient factors influence engagement in aerobic exercise during rehabilitation. Objectives: We aimed to determine whether depressive symptoms, apathy, self-efficacy and outcome expectations for exercise, perceived barriers, or past exercise history were associated with aerobic exercise participation in stroke rehabilitation. Methods: In this prospective cohort sub-study, adults admitted to in- or out-patient stroke rehabilitation at three urban hospitals completed validated questionnaires assessing depressive symptoms, apathy, exercise self-efficacy, outcome expectations for exercise, perceived barriers to being active, and premorbid exercise history. Participants were separated into two groups for analysis: those who completed aerobic exercise during rehabilitation and those who did not. Equivalence testing and between-group comparisons were performed. Results: Sixty-two participants were enrolled; 16 participated in aerobic exercise and 46 did not. Groups were not equivalent on any individual-level factors. Compared to non-participants, those who performed aerobic exercise had significantly higher depressive symptom scores (p=0.0025) and lower self-efficacy for exercise (p=0.0087). Non-participants demonstrated significantly higher apathy (p=0.0007). No significant differences were found for outcome expectations, perceived barriers, or exercise history. Conclusion: Depressive symptoms and lower self-efficacy did not impede aerobic exercise participation during rehabilitation. Increased apathy, however, was associated with non-participation. Findings highlight the need for individually tailored aerobic exercise prescriptions that consider motivational and affective factors to optimize engagement during stroke rehabilitation.

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Burr-Hole Intersection of Middle Meningeal Artery Branches and Recurrence in Chronic Subdural Haematoma: a Multicentre Retrospective Cohort Study

Saba, T. M.; Moudgil-Joshi, J.; Pandit, A. S.; Penn, J.; Mallon, D.; Marcus, H. J.; Grover, P.

2026-08-31 surgery 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361348 medRxiv
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Background and Objectives: Recurrence following burr-hole drainage of chronic subdural haematoma (cSDH) occurs in 10-25% of cases, sustained by neovascularisation of the subdural neomembrane supplied by the middle meningeal artery (MMA). MMA embolisation reduces recurrence; whether incidental burr-hole intersection of MMA branches during drainage confers similar benefit is unknown. Methods: We performed a multicentre retrospective cohort study of consecutive adults undergoing burr-hole drainage for cSDH at two UK tertiary neurosurgical centres. Postoperative thin-slice CT was used to classify burr-hole intersection of the underlying MMA groove (no hit, distal-branch hit or main-branch hit) and measure perpendicular burr-hole-to-MMA-groove distance. Co-primary outcomes were radiological recurrence and recurrence requiring intervention. Patient-clustered multivariable logistic regression adjusted for prespecified clinical covariates and treating site. Results: 227 patients (284 operated hemispheres) were included. Radiological recurrence decreased from 34.4% with no branch hit to 22.9% with main-branch intersection, with the gradient confined predominantly to unilateral cSDH. Main-branch intersection was associated with lower adjusted odds of radiological recurrence in unilateral cSDH (adjusted OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.11- 0.81; P = .018), with a similar but non-significant association in the overall cohort (adjusted OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.26-1.07; P = .075). Burr-hole-to-MMA-groove distance demonstrated a more consistent association: in the overall cohort, each 5-mm increase independently increased the odds of radiological recurrence (adjusted OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.04-1.82; P = .025). In unilateral cSDH, each 5-mm increase was independently associated with both radiological recurrence (adjusted OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03-2.04; P = .034) and recurrence requiring intervention (adjusted OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.05-2.20; P = .027). Conclusion: Main-branch intersection of the middle meningeal artery during routine burr-hole surgery is associated with lower recurrence of unilateral cSDH, while the accompanying burr-hole-to-MMA-groove distance gradient provides biologically plausible support for a dose-response relationship. Together, these findings provide mechanistic rationale for prospective evaluation of intentional neuronavigation-guided MMA targeting (BURR-MMA; NCT07549893).

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Preferences for receiving study results among pregnant women participating in a phase III clinical trial in Papua New Guinea.

Mengi, A.; Bagita-Vangana, M.; Tesine, P.; Laman, M.; Bolnga, J. W.; Ome-Kaius, M.; Kulimbao, J.; Mase, J.; Mal, L. S.; Mnjala, H.; Lee, G.; Cassidy-Seyoum, S. A.; Thriemer, K.; Unger, H. W.

2026-08-31 medical ethics 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361571 medRxiv
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Disseminating study results to participants is an ethical responsibility for researchers but remains uncommon in low- and middle-income countries, and participants preferences for receiving study results are poorly understood. This study examined study result dissemination preferences among pregnant women in a phase III malaria prevention trial in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Participants completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire (survey) assessing their interest in and motivation for receiving trial results and preferences for dissemination methods and content. Associations between participants characteristics and dissemination preferences were explored using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Of 1172 trial participants, 96.0% (1125/1172) completed the survey, and of these 99.6% (1121/1125) wanted to learn about the trial results. The main motivation factors driving participants interest were an acknowledgment of their contribution to research (51.7%; n=579) and a better understanding of the study (45.0%; n=505). Most participants (78.9%; n=884) wanted to learn about the trial findings through written summary and a group meeting with other participants at the nearest clinic (31.1%, n=349). Multivariable regression analysis indicated that participants from rural/peri-urban clinics were more likely to choose non-electronic media dissemination approaches such as a group meeting as compared to urban-dwelling participants. Frequently selected items (>50% of participants) for content included information regarding good results of the study, purpose of the study, medical treatment advances, results specific to me, and how study was conducted. There was heterogenicity in the preference for dissemination content: compared to urban clinics rural clinics are less likely to want to learn about how and why study was conducted and medical and scientific advances. Overall, the majority wanted to learn about trial results, highlighting the importance of integrating dissemination into research activities in PNG. Variation in preferences for mode and content of dissemination between study clinics suggests that dissemination activities could be tailored to local context and preferences.

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Antiseizure Medication Administration Gaps Across the ICU-to-Floor Transfer: A Matched Within-Patient Comparison

Gorenshtein, A.; Adiniaev, Y.; Srour, A.; Klang, E.; Daniel, O.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361462 medRxiv
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Objective: Whether a scheduled antiseizure medication (ASM) continues on schedule across the ICU-to-floor transfer has not been characterized. We quantified ASM administration-gap frequency across this transfer and compared it with gap frequency during matched non-transfer intervals in the same patient and drug. Methods: In this retrospective MIMIC-IV (version 3.1) cohort study, we identified epilepsy and status-epilepticus admissions with an ICU stay followed by floor transfer and a scheduled ASM order active at ICU departure. A gap was defined as an interval exceeding 1.5 times the expected dosing interval between the last ICU dose and first floor dose, or no further dose before discharge, and compared with a matched non-transfer control interval in the same patient and drug (paired McNemar test). A multivariable model evaluated six prespecified clinical predictors; sociodemographic variables were summarized descriptively. Results: Among 2,469 ASM transition-by-drug observations (1,583 admissions, 1,335 patients), an administration gap occurred in 251 (10.2%; 95% CI, 8.7%-11.7%). Gap frequency across the transfer exceeded frequency during matched non-transfer control intervals in the same patient and drug: a paired rate difference of 5.8 percentage points (95% CI, 4.4-7.1; 7.5% vs 1.7%; P = 7.3 x 10^-22) before the transfer and 6.4 percentage points (95% CI, 4.9-7.9; 8.9% vs 2.5%; P = 1.9 x 10^-23) after. Gap rates were similar for intravenous-available (9.9%) and oral-only (11.4%) drugs (rate difference, 1.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.6 to 4.5; P = .34). None of six prespecified predictors reached significance after correction. Significance: An antiseizure medication administration gap occurred in approximately 1 of every 10 drug-transition observations at the ICU-to-floor transfer, exceeding matched non-transfer gap rates by 5.8 to 6.4 percentage points. This transfer-associated excess, rather than any single medication or patient characteristic, supports a structured medication-continuity check.